66% of the gap for Black applicants is still there after matching income, loan size and debt
66% of the gap for Black applicants is still there after matching income, loan size and debt
Denial-rate gap, Black vs. joint applicants, in percentage points
4.2 ptsaccounted for by income, loan size and debt
8.2 ptsstill unexplained
How to read this: the whole bar is the raw 12.4-point gap. The orange part is what is left when applicants with the same income, loan size and debt are compared.
Note: Controls are income, how much of the home's value is being borrowed, debt measured against income, what the loan is for, and whether it is a first or a second mortgage. Run on a 200,000-row stratified sample, where the raw gap is 12.4 points (12.7 on the full file). Public HMDA has no credit scores, so the unexplained part is a reason to look closer, not proof of discrimination.
Source: public HMDA filings, 2023 to 2025. hmda-audit analysis.