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1,018 of 1,400 raw four-fifths flags do not survive a small-sample correction

1,018 of 1,400 raw four-fifths flags do not survive a small-sample correction
Lenders flagged for the Black vs. White denial-rate gap, national total, all years pooled
Raw four-fifths flags, no size floor1,400
Four-fifths flags, 100+ applications368
Empirical-Bayes watch list404
Note: Small lenders are pulled toward the typical Black vs. White denial-rate gap of 9.8 points, which itself varies by about 5.9 points from lender to lender, so a raw four-fifths ratio computed on a handful of applications is noisy and can flag or clear a lender by chance. 97 watch-list lenders are not flagged by the four-fifths screen even with the 100-application floor applied; a flag here is a prompt for review, not a finding.
Source: public HMDA filings, 2023 to 2025. hmda-audit analysis.
Patrick Taylor
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